Which is a Better Digital Asset: Nvidia or Bitcoin?

This is not investment advice. You must evaluate your own risk tolerance and timeframe for any investment.

Nvidia went Exponential ten years ago

Both Nvidia and Bitcoin have suffered corrections in the past week. But both have an incredible track record. Which is the better long-term digital asset and why?

I spent 30 years working in the high performance computing industry, and am a great fan of Nvidia, which is an extremely well run and important company. I have a number of former colleagues in the industry who now work there.

The stock price has been growing at an average rate of 33% (R² of 0.82 for an exponential fit) over the past two decades. But over the past decade it has grown at an astounding average compound rate of 69% (R² of 0.95 for the regression) per annum.

What is the outlook? Well as of today Nvidia’s market cap is $3.1 trillion. They will not be able to grow the stock price at 69% each year on average for the next decade. If they were able to, their market cap would rise to $551 trillion (computation: 1.69¹⁰ x 3.1 T).

This can’t happen, so it won’t happen. All private global wealth is currently about $500 trillion. See https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-wealth-distribution/ . Global wealth grows about 6.7% per year so a decade from now could be around $1000 trillion. But even with that, Nvidia’s market cap would have to be half of all private global wealth.